Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-06-26T00:22:34

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, has dropped out in the last 12 hours, likely due to the arrival of the CIR of anticipated CH95/-, followed by the arrival of a fast wind. 

Flux levels are expected to build through day 1 (26th), and likely becoming generally High from day 2 (27th) onward.  Any CME glance that occurs early on day 3 (28th) may lead to a drop out in values, however this is very low confidence.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to be below the Active level at first, but likely rising above the Active (1e8) threshold either late on day 2 (27th) or from day 3 (28th), similar to the previous rotation, but around 24 hours later than a standard 27-day persistence would suggest. This is currently not indicated by REFM, but this model will likely show a more notable rise once solar winds become elevated during day 1 (26th) due to the fast wind from CH95.