Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-06-25T00:27:07

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) should show a gradual rising trend in the four days, perhaps with some temporary suppression today due to geomagnetic activity from a potential CIR from high speed stream arrival(s) from one of up to three negative polarity high speed streams: CH93, 94 and/or CH95. The flux is expected to breach the High threshold at times from day 3 onwards.

The corresponding electron fluence is therefore expected to eventually develop a rising trend, with Active (1e8 integrated pfu) fluence becoming Likely from during day 4 (28 June). The Met Office REFM is considered to be showing reasonable guidance at present, with the fluence remaining below the Active threshold for the first three days. Persistence forecasting is unhelpful at this stage, due to the difference in coronal holes compared to the previous rotation.