Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-06-21T00:18:40

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV), as observed by GOES16, rose to high levels, peaking at 2970ppcc at 20/1450 UTC, the radiations belts becoming charged following the HSS originating from CH90 and CH92. This pattern should continue on Days 1 and 2, the electron flux becoming high during the diurnal peak, though perhaps with an overall declining trend. As the solar wind returns to slow-ambient levels, the electron flux is expected to also reduce and become confined to background levels by Day 4. 

The associated 24-hour integrated fluence is expected to remain above the Active threshold on Days 1 and 2 (21st and 22nd) and perhaps Day 3 (23rd) but the chance is considered unlikely on Day 4 (24th). This reflects a lack of confidence due to a volatile and often unpredictable electron flux. The REFM output is not considered to provide good guidance, the forecast considered too optimistic and the recurrence too pessimistic.