Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-06-19T00:11:57

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES16 has shown an increase in the magnitude of its diurnal oscillation in response to the current fast wind near 600km/s. This has led to a rise in 24-hour integrated fluence, however this trend has recently slowed. Increased geomagnetic activity late in the past 24-hour period may further dent counts at GEO for a time, however it is still felt that any recovery ought to fall just short of Active fluence levels, as per previous rotation.

MOSWOC REFM is currently felt to be offering good guidance inside the first 24 hours, however the forecast beyond this is considered overly-reactive to the fast wind and will probably be a full decade lower near the Active rather than Very Active threshold.