Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-06-14T00:07:12

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is currently at background levels. As the influence of the recent coronal hole high speed stream weakens, the Van Allen radiation belts may start to charge themselves. However, with the expected arrival of a CME in the early hours of the 15th (Day 2) and the subsequent distortion of the magnetic field, electron counts should temporarily drop, before recovering quickly on Days 3 and 4. Therefore an increasing trend is now considered more likely than not, particularly on Day 4 as the HSS originating from CH90 (and expected on Day 3) may suppress flux levels momentarily on Day 3.

The level of confidence is however low as the forecast is essentially based on a glancing blow from the CME that was observed leaving the sun on the 13th. Overall, the chance of reaching Active levels is considered likely, particularly at the end of the forecast period. The REFM is unfortunately not going to be useful on this occasion, as unaware of the CME's risk, but suggests nonetheless a rise to just below Active levels by Day 2, which seems like a reasonable trend.