Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-06-05T00:24:11

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 has been at High (greater than 1000pfu) levels through the last 24 hours due to the fast wind enhancement that occurred a few days ago. These mainly High levels are expected to persist until the potential arrival of two CMEs late day 1 or day 2 (5th or 6th), which are likely to cause levels to drop out, before a recovery to Moderate to High levels day 3 and 4 (7-8th).

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is currently Active (greater than 1e8 integrated pfu) and is expected to persist at this level into day 2 (6th). Confidence then falls for continuing Active levels into day 3 and 4 (7th-8th), due to the potential drop out of flux that occurs, along with an uncertain recovery following.  Observed fluence is currently running much higher than REFM expectations, and consequently expected to remain well above the REFM forecast.