Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-05-30T00:24:19

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently at moderate levels, with the observed rise likely due to the decompression of the radiation belts following from the influence of coronal hole 85. The onset of coronal hole 84 may suppress electron counts for a time on day 1 (30th May) but could rise again later, more especially on day 2 and 3 (31st May and 1st June) with further decompression of the radiation belts likely bringing high electron flux later in the period.

Electron fluence is likely to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold during the period, with a slight chance of reaching Active levels on day 1 and 4, and a chance on day 2 and 3. Current MOSWOC REFM models is suggesting an increase on day 1 and 2, followed by a steady decline, likely due to an absence of longer-lived elevated winds in the REFM model. Persistence (Recurrence) shows a similar trend, but has too elevated starting fluence compared to observed values.