Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-05-29T00:28:32

The High energy electron flux (as measured by GOES-16) is currently at normal background levels. In the immediate term, flux levels are likely to be attenuated by geomagnetic activity from the fast wind(s), with wind speeds probably sufficient to compress the radiation belts and suppress electron counts at GEO through 29th May. A gradual decompression of the radiation belts is likely through this period, with an increase in flux probable, assuming charging has occurred with the faster winds.

The chances of Active electron fluence should then increase into the new working week, with the magnitude of any response low confidence, but perhaps becoming likely to pass Active by day 3 (31st).

MOSWOC REFM's forecast is currently running counter to the expected evolution, likely because the recent rise in wind speeds has not yet fully been ingested into the model. Persistence is offering a better guide in this respect, although the fact that the coronal holes differ between rotations should mean that details differ. Persistence is likely indicating the upward trend too soon.