Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-05-26T12:27:47

The High energy electron flux (as measured by GOES-16) is currently at background to Moderate, with a declining trend. This is likely to drop out with any fast wind arrival later day 1 (26th), and with any subsequent CME arrival, most likely early day 3 (27th).  As any CME influence recedes, High flux is possible by the end of day 4 (28th). 

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain at background with no notable extended periods of high flux expected through the period, although likely increasing day 4 (29th). This is supported by REFM, which shows a declining trend for days 1-3 (26th-28th).