Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-03-16T01:20:32

GOES‑19 high‑energy (>2 MeV) electron flux is expected to be at mostly Background to Moderate levels initially, with a likelihood of a diurnal High peak through Day 1 (16 Mar). Through the remainder of the period flux levels are expected to generally rise as solar wind speeds steadily ease, with an increasing likelihood of sustained periods above High levels during the diurnal maximum by Days 3 and 4 (18-19 Mar).

The associated 24hr electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated flux) initially, but with a likely rising trend through Days 1 and 2 (16-17 Mar), with an increasing likelihood of breaching the Active threshold. MOSWOC REFM forecast and recurrence both indicating an fluence levels above the Active threshold Active into Days 3 and 4 (18-19 Mar), and recurrence is considered generally good guidance.